Since the king coin sold at $15,800, the phrase “Bitcoin [BTCbottom ]’s is close” has become the phrase of the day. However, many investors would not have expected that judgment to be as accurate.
It occurred due to an announcement made recently by MrPapi, a CryptoQuant expert, who asserted that the bear market might take longer to end than expected based on market indications. The analyst remarked, “concerning the most recent lousy market.”
“In previous bear markets, it took BTC around 11 months (330 days) to find a floor once the RSI bottomed. We are around 270 days currently. 330 days will land in Jan ’23, but given the macro, I would expect a longer bear market than in the past.”
The Current State Of Bitcoin
The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) appeared to be at odds with the forecast on the four-hour chart. The 200 EMA (yellow), which represented the long-term outlook, was situated above the 50 EMA at the time of publication (blue).
This implied that there was a good chance BTC would rebound within that time. Therefore, there was a lower likelihood that the market would be in chaos. However, the analyst might have paid more attention to a time period longer than the 200-day span.
The Bollinger Bands (BB) in the aforementioned chart were also examined; at the time of writing, they displayed low volatility. A price reversal might not be on the horizon, as evidenced by the price of Bitcoin being unable to rise above the bands.
The circumstance did not, however, guarantee that the long-term trend of the price of BTC would not change. According to Santiment’s on-chain data, the 365-day realized cap for Bitcoin was 160.04 billion.
Given that this value was at a low point, it meant that not many holders had moved their coins in the previous year. Bitcoin was less likely to go toward relief without any indication of a comeback.
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The 365-day dormant circulation had also failed to find a way out of the slump. The value of dormant circulation was 443 at the time of publication. This suggested that the long-term holders had held off on making a transaction. Therefore, it was possible that their investments were still losing money with no obvious signs of improvement.
Furthermore, short-term investors may see some relief. Another analyst at CryptoQuant, Ghoddusifar, expressed this opinion. The cross-up and cross-down trend, in his opinion, presented a potential bullish crossover for the 30-day to 365-day Moving Average (MA). But this didn’t indicate that the upswing was certain; rather, it was more of a pre-signal.